Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Stop the top smoking nonsense, in the name of ecomics anyways

“A major source of objection to a free economy is precisely that it gives people what they want instead of what a particular group thinks they ought to want." MF
      In a paper published in the Public Library of Science Medicine journal, Dutch researchers found that the health costs of thin and healthy people in adulthood are MORE expensive than those of either fat people or smokers. Because both the smokers and the obese people died sooner than the healthy group, it cost less to treat them in the long run.
- http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0050037

Sunday, February 26, 2017

economic axioms I believe to be true thus far

1) "Capitalism, or more precisely, the free market system, is the most effective way to organise production and distribution that human beings have found … healthy and competitive financial markets are an extraordinarily effective tool in spreading opportunity and fighting poverty. …Without vibrant, innovative financial markets, economies would ossify and decline." (p  1)-Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists: Unleashing the Power of Financial Markets to Create Wealth and Spread Opportunity
2) taxing things decreases consumption, subsidizing things increase consumption.
3) there will always be arbitrages called “externalities” — costs that people impose on others without paying the price
4) the price of a stock's probability distribution is based on a normal curve. The more likely shape should be a fat-tailed curve ergo..."The Black–Scholes model of option pricing is based on a normal distribution. If the distribution is actually a fat-tailed one, then the model will under-price options that are far out of the money, since a 5- or 7-sigma event is much more likely than the normal distribution would predict." AND "...
"1. The Black-Scholes model overprices “at the money” call options, that is
S≈K The Black-Scholes model underprices call options at the ends, either deep “in the money”,
S>>K , or deep “out of the money”, S<<K ."
-https://www.math.unl.edu/~sdunbar1/MathematicalFinance/Lessons/BlackScholes/Limitations/limitations.pdf