Sunday, February 26, 2017

economic axioms I believe to be true thus far

1) "Capitalism, or more precisely, the free market system, is the most effective way to organise production and distribution that human beings have found … healthy and competitive financial markets are an extraordinarily effective tool in spreading opportunity and fighting poverty. …Without vibrant, innovative financial markets, economies would ossify and decline." (p  1)-Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists: Unleashing the Power of Financial Markets to Create Wealth and Spread Opportunity
2) taxing things decreases consumption, subsidizing things increase consumption.
3) there will always be arbitrages called “externalities” — costs that people impose on others without paying the price
4) the price of a stock's probability distribution is based on a normal curve. The more likely shape should be a fat-tailed curve ergo..."The Black–Scholes model of option pricing is based on a normal distribution. If the distribution is actually a fat-tailed one, then the model will under-price options that are far out of the money, since a 5- or 7-sigma event is much more likely than the normal distribution would predict." AND "...
"1. The Black-Scholes model overprices “at the money” call options, that is
S≈K The Black-Scholes model underprices call options at the ends, either deep “in the money”,
S>>K , or deep “out of the money”, S<<K ."
-https://www.math.unl.edu/~sdunbar1/MathematicalFinance/Lessons/BlackScholes/Limitations/limitations.pdf

1 comment:

  1. Sell at the money call options and buy them at the margins.

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